Summary:
This study examines the role played by economies of scale in the economic viability of alternative fuel trucks such as battery-electric (BET) and fuel cell electric trucks (FCET). Focusing on the role of infrastructure deployment, the research develops a fleet-wide Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model covering the period 2025–2040 and accounting for multiple truck segments and mission profiles. The model explicitly integrates refuelling and charging infrastructure costs by linking the levelised cost of hydrogen supply (LCOSH) to station capacity and utilisation, and by modelling depot–public charging mixes for BETs. By incorporating stochastic projections of component costs, energy prices, and utilisation levels, the analysis captures uncertainty and scale effects consistent with AFIR infrastructure targets.
The findings show that, on average, BETs are likely to dominate in the short and medium term, particularly in urban and regional logistics. FCETs can also become competitive in long-haul operations. However, the competitiveness of both alternatives depends to a large extent on the economies of scale of recharging infrastructures, with FCETs requiring large fleets or shared stations in order to reduce refuelling costs.
The paper discusses the implications of these findings for European green infrastructure policies, in particular AFIR, which must be aligned with these economic realities in order to be successful.
Spanish layman's summary:
Este estudio muestra que los camiones eléctricos serán rentables en diversos segmentos, mientras que los camiones de hidrógeno podrían volverse competitivos en largas distancias. Sin embargo, los costes de la infraestructura de hidrógeno son clave, lo que sugiere que las políticas deben apoyar estaciones de repostaje compartidas para descarbonizar eficazmente el transporte pesado.
English layman's summary:
This study shows that electric trucks will be cost-effective across segments, while hydrogen trucks may become competitive for long distances. However, hydrogen infrastructure costs play a key role, suggesting policies must support shared refueling stations to effectively decarbonize heavy transport.
Keywords: Decarbonisation of transport; Heavy-duty; Alternative fuel trucks; Total cost of ownership (TCO); Infrastructure policy
JCR-JIF Impact Factor and WoS quartile: 9,300 - Q1 (2025)
DOI reference:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114976
Published on paper: February 2026.
Published on-line: November 2025.
Citation:
M. Pérez-Bravo, S. Serna, R. Cossent, P. Linares, "Economies of scale matter: how refuelling infrastructure policy affects the viability of alternative fuel trucks", Energy Policy, Vol. 209, nº. Part B, pp. 114976, February 2026. [Online: November 2025] doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114976
